Component demand market will recover in the second half of the year

Although all of the leading indicators show that the seasonal growth will resume in the second half of 2013, the current orders of the Electronic Components industry including semiconductors are inferior to those expected during the current market recovery phase. For example, during this period before the holiday season, the order activity of MOSFETs, capacitors, and logic devices did not show the usual level. At this stage there are usually longer lead times and higher prices, which are not yet seen. According to IHS' component price tracking service, this demand gap may limit the growth of the electronic component market this year.

At the same time, other components used in the consumer electronics, automotive, wired and wireless, and industrial sectors will continue to drive market growth, leading to a firm overall outlook for commodity chips in 2013, with semiconductor revenue expected to grow by 4.8% despite the market The various fields will not be equally strong.

The table shows the 2012-2015 OEM plant operating revenue forecasts, broken down by specific target component manufacturer markets and submarkets.

Commodity component prices will gradually rise this year

Suppliers are considering early introduction of incentives prepared later in the fiscal year to make up for demand gaps, such as price incentives in strategic areas, internal testing and assembly plans, and plant load plans. IHS believes that the component market will achieve stability, but this will have to wait until the end of 2013, much later than previously expected.

Fortunately, delivery times are largely kept at the usual level, and only some areas have longer delays. This is good news for markets that have been extended to 20 weeks in the past few years. In addition, as demand increases, the prices of commodity components will gradually increase during the rest of the year.

Four industry drivers for restoring seasonal growth

After two years of declining sales or weak growth, all leading demand indicators in the semiconductor market, such as PCB order-to-bill ratios, IC inventory levels, IC plant capacity utilisation, and component lead times, all appear to show recovery in the second half of 2013. Seasonal growth. Industries such as consumer electronics, automotive, industrial and telecommunications have shown signs of growth and should promote the component industries and their supply chain partners to resume seasonal growth as these industries will drive demand until 2015.

Under the combined influence of these factors, component manufacturers' commodity chips should have received more orders. However, because the bulk orders that usually appear at this stage have not yet appeared, component manufacturers are currently forced to recalculate, replan, and rearrange them in order to obtain the orders needed to avoid continued lack of recovery.

Therefore, over the past few years, the backlog demand in the commodity chip area may not be fully released in this cycle, and may be postponed to the next cycle. But considering the cautious attitude of commodity component suppliers, they may be careful now, so the backlog of chip may not fully emerge in the near future. One thing is for sure: Do not expect component suppliers to increase production.